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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.